Overview
It’s time for another domestic briefing. With the general news cycle being slow and the elections going insane, it is time to reexamine the primaries and really go into some of the things that will give extempers an analytical edge in the inevitable “who will win” round. So we are going to briefly recap the March primaries, look to the major issues in the forthcoming states, and add some theoretical reasons to explain why things are as close as they are.
Key Terms and Figures
Current Tallies: After the Mississippi Primaries, Obama currently leads the delegate tally 1608 to 1478. Currently only 444 of the 796 super delegates are pledged. If these super delegates, and the primaries, continue splitting almost even, no clear winner may emerge before the convention – unless some plan to recognize Florida and Michigan comes to fruition.
Ohio: Clinton won this state by a 10 point margin: 54%-44%. This netted her nine delegates. While many analysts expected her to win the state, the majority of polls expected it to be a closer race.
Texas: Clinton won the primary 51-48, netting 4 delegates. However, Obama won the caucuses, with 41% of the votes in he leads 56-44, netting 9 delegates. This larger margin of victory means that Obama is going to get more delegates out of Texas, despite not gaining the majority of the votes. The disparity is interesting because all Texans could participate in both caucuses and primaries – the disparity is mostly explained in the demographics of the voters or the differences inherent to the different voting styles. Only approximately 100,000 Texans caucused versus the nearly 3 million Texans voting in the primaries.
Mississippi: Obama won the state 61-37, netting him 6 votes. The results have reignited race as a major issue in the campaigning. Clinton backer, and first women VP candidate Geraldine Ferraro, was quoted as saying that the only reason that Obama has been so successful was his race. When accused of being racist she responded “Any time anybody does anything that in any way pulls this (Obama) campaign down and says let’s address reality and the problems we’re facing in this world, you’re accused of being racist, so you have to shut up … Racism works in two different directions. I really think they’re attacking me because I’m white. How’s that?” As such race has once again moved center stage in the elections. Coupled with the fact that the results across the South have been highly radicalized, means that Obama will have to defend his appeal to all voters.
Long Term Potential: The next big primary is Pennsylvania on April 22, with its 158 delegates. Many are predicting that the long gap could work well for Clinton. She has tended to utilize long breaks in voting better, Obama mastering the short quick push for voters. Further, Clinton has tended to have an advantage in the old blue color industrial states; many of the issues that won her Ohio are predicted to push her to success in PA. Either way, both candidates are going to spend the next 41 days in the Keystone State, and it will dominate the news.
Major Issues
Bradley Effect: The fact that Obama has generally failed to live up to his poll numbers, but won caucuses handily has been a subject of speculation among political analysts. While some of his caucus success may be explained by the fact that his younger voters are more likely to caucuses, especially when they were held in the evening in Texas, it doesn’t account for the generally off poll numbers – both Ohio and Texas were expected to be closer. One thing that may explain this trend is the “Bradley Effect.” The Bradley effect is named for former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who narrowly lost the 1982 race for California governor to his white Republican opponent, George Deukmejian. Bradley had been leading soundly in all of the polls. The effect postulates that when under public pressure – such as a poll or caucus – white voters are more likely to show support for a minority candidate to fear appearing racists. However, when they get to the privacy of a voting booth they will cast their vote against the same candidate. In this way, peer pressure may not only be bolstering Obama’s poll numbers – creating a false sense of political support – but also may strong arm many caucus voters into voting for him.
Florida and Michigan: With the election remaining so close, Florida and Michigan – who lost their delegates for holding their primaries too early — are becoming a major issue for two reasons. First, without their delegates no candidate may have a majority before the convention. Without this majority, the convention will turn to backroom deals to get super delegates to move to one candidate or the other – a move that could really break up the party, and anger many Americans who would see it as undemocratic. Second, many just criticize that with this so close, to leave millions of American voters out of the primary process would be plain unfair. Because of this proposals have been levied to hold re-votes in both states. The re-votes are necessary rather than using the tallies of the banned elections, because Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, and didn’t spend any money in Florida. The most recent proposal is to hold mail in elections, this is the cheapest way for these states to hold a second election, which the states have to pay for themselves. Such elections are subject to the approval of both candidates, which may be hard to get since the states tend to lean toward Clinton.
Things Getting Nasty: Finally with things getting so close, expect the elections to get nastier. However, the mudslinging may not always be so blatant. For example, Clinton just asked Obama to be her VP candidate, despite the fact he leads in delegates, popular vote and number of states won. As such the claim creates divides and rhetorically lessens Obama. It was more than likely designed to try to get a rise out of the Obama campaign and push them towards making some sort of mistake. Expect more goading than direct attacks, a candidates mistake will have a larger impact than any accusations.
Sample Questions
Which Democrat will win in Pennsylvania?
Can Obama overcome the “Bradley Effect”?
Will Ferraro’s allegations of racism help or hinder Obama?
Will the demographics of the remaining primaries benefit Hillary?
What should be done to restore delegates to Michigan and Floridia?