The last several years have been fortunate for the world’s medical watchers. Fearing an avian flu pandemic across the globe several years ago, these experts have only had to watch the progression of the virus in isolated parts of the Eastern Hemisphere. Also, avian flu never became a human-to-human transmission problem, reducing the urgency required or the threat of avian flu becoming a global problem. However, the recent outbreak of swine flu, if it can be aptly called that since this strain of flu borrows from swine influenza, avian influenza (albeit not its most dangerous components), and human influenza components, which has infected nearly 1500 people globally at the time of this writing, can aroused fears that this is the next global flu pandemic. This is compounded by the fact that swine flu appears to be spreading from person to person, regardless of their contact with infected animals.
This brief will attempt to sort through the mess generated by the latest swine flu outbreak. This brief will provide some details concerning swine flu and its significance, measures currently being taken to stop the spread of the virus, and the implications it has for the globalization movement and President Obama.
Background
This swine flu outbreak is thought to have originated in Mexico, although that is not a definite. Medical researchers will be trying to uncover where this latest strain of swine flu originated so that they can best prevent future outbreaks and try to uncover clues about how to contain it. This was the strategy that was used in China by the World Health Organization (WHO) and Chinese authorities when they were investigating severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in the early part of this decade. After an investigation, it turned up that SARS was being spread by domestic cats and ferret badgers.
Mexico has been hit with the most severe cases of swine flu so far with over 100 people dying of the virus. The twenty diagnosed cases in the U.S., as well as those in Europe, have all been mild. Experts wonder why there has been a significant difference between the two viruses because the U.S. and Mexican strain appear to be made up of the same components. Theories are that Mexico’s healthcare system is worse than those found in both Europe and U.S., that people in Mexico may have failed to seek treatment when they acquired severe symptoms of the influenza such as muscle aches, soreness, and sore throat, and that Mexico City’s pollution levels (which is where many cases have occurred) may have given people a respiratory ailment that swine flu capitalizes on to become more deadly.
What worries policymakers is that swine flu, unlike bird flu, appears to be based from person to person, making it easier to spread and hard to contain. In an era of globalization, with fast travel between countries on airplanes and other transportation vehicles, this can make a local medical problem a global medical problem, which then creates a pandemic. Another worrying sign is that the fatalities from this disease in Mexico are in the 25-44 age range, in other words striking healthy adults, instead of usual influenza victims such as the elderly and children under the age of two.
As of right now it is tough to define the swine flu as a pandemic. It does meet the conditions that it is a new virus and that it does cause serious illness. However, the lifetime of the virus is still in doubt. Swine influenza could come and pass like a flash in the pan and if it does then it does not classify as a pandemic. However, if it lingers for the next few months then it does fulfill the last requirement to be called a pandemic.
Medical experts have long argued that the world is overdue for another pandemic, which tend to happen every twenty years. Shortly after World War II, the Asian and Hong Kong flu’s, respectively, spread across the world, and killed nearly 200,000 people in the United States. The worst case scenario is that swine flu becomes like the Spanish flu at the end of World War I, which sickened 20% of the world and killed 50 million people in six months. A British researcher suggests that if swine flu comes like the Spanish flu it has the ability to kill up to 120 million people worldwide.
Measures to Prevent Its Spread
The WHO and the U.S. Center for Diseases Control (CDC) argues that it is too late to contain swine flu. The virus has already spread to different corners of the globe and the only chance of containing a virus is if it is found in a locality quickly. Due to Mexico being a big tourist spot, especially during spring break, there is already the potential that swine flu could quickly cover the globe.
Mexico has already stepped up initiatives in order to get a handle on the current outbreak. In Mexico City, people are being given protective masks to shield their faces, although medical experts argue that these masks do not do enough to stop the spread of the flu. Instead, they are advocating that people wash their hands regularly. Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon has also urged his countrymen not to engage in traditional Mexican greetings with kisses or handshakes so that the disease is not spread. Furthermore, all Mexico City schools have been shut down until May 6th and public places have become deserted as people have started to panic over the flu outbreak.
The United States, while choosing not to close the border with Mexico, has now provided security personnel along the border with protecting clothing so their chances of contracting the virus remain low. Also, the U.S. State Department is considering issuing a travel warning to Mexico, urging that Americans who do not need to urgently travel there avoid the country. The Obama administration has also declared a public health emergency, which will allow medicines and checkups for influenza to be made faster. A public health emergency also mobilizes teams in place to implement the federal government’s flu plan, which was drafted years ago when there was the fear of a pandemic of bird flu hitting the U.S. Affected states with swine flu are also getting some of the federal stockpiles of flu vaccinations.
Some countries are taking tighter measures to try to prevent the disease from entering their territory. For example, Japan has said that it will screen passengers coming into its country. Also, Russia has temporarily banned the importation of beef from Mexico and from the U.S., fearing the virus may spread through food, but this has been disputed. Other Asian countries are also considering quarantines, if need be, of countries in the Western Hemisphere.
Implications
The big loser, if swine flu does become a pandemic, is the globalization movement. The movement of bringing countries closer together through transportation routes and economic links and generated untold economic growth has also opened the world to catastrophe in light of a medical problem. People who carry swine flu, and who may not know it, fly across the world, infecting those they come in contact with on land and are in close proximity to others on aircraft where they can spread the infection further. Economists fear that a prolonged pandemic scare would cut off global trade links because it would give an easy excuse for politicians to no longer import certain goods. Russia is a prime example of this with its beef ban, justifying it under the guise of national security. If this virus originated in Mexico, which is where all indications are leading, that could provoke public anger that could start the chipping away of NAFTA provisions. It could also make closer U.S.-Mexican ties a political impossibility despite Obama trying to cooperate more with the Mexican government on stopping the illicit drug trade along the border.
Another implication of swine flu is that it could be used as a guise to justify more government intervention in markets and socially. Governments may feel the need if a pandemic erupts to implement measures that suspend stock markets or other financial transactions. Governments could also eradicate patents for certain prescription drugs, if they believe those drugs will be important to solving the crisis. The purpose of this would be to allow generics to be produced which could be cheaper and to ensure a larger supply.
Finally, the Obama administration might have to downsize other priorities if the swine flu becomes a major national problem. Obama’s interest in expanding healthcare might be served by the pandemic but major economic reforms will have to wait. In addition, a pandemic threatens to overshadow other national priorities such as the war on terrorism and what to do with human rights abuses at Guantanamo Bay.
Overall, the details, origins, and dangerous nature of the swine flu are not yet known. It remains to be seen how this recent virus will play out and while hopefully not serious, it is comforting to know that international bodies are taking the threat seriously and are preparing themselves in the case of a worldwide emergency.