By Sebastian Pyrek
Recent events in the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with a special focus on the Russian involvement in the former republic, are strong evidence that Russia is undergoing another resurgence on the international stage. Nearly two decades have passed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but there is a strong nationalistic spirit that never fell has returned to power; spearheaded by former President and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin this movement has allowed the Russian phoenix to rise from the ashes of the USSR and regain its power on the international stage. Russia’s involvement in Ukrainian and Belarusian politics, Estonian and Georgian post-soviet sovereignty, and international energy markets (to name a few) shows that Russia’s intentions are egocentric at best. Russia‘s recent posturing indicates that its leadership rejects the idea that the international community should be monopolar with the USA in power.[1]
History
The history of Russia as a world power began in the late 17th when a series of powerful leaders, namely Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, defeated the checks on Russian dominance such as Sweden, Napoleonic France, and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Russia also greatly expanded its territorial reach due to many aggressive wars, which would give it future influence over Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The 20th century brought about many changes in the structure of Russia’s Government, most important being the establishment and dissolution of the USSR in 1922 and 1991 respectively. During this time the USSR expanded its influence to large expanses of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and after the fall of the USSR, 14 nations spit off and declared independence (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan). Russia also lost the satellite states of Eastern Germany, Poland, Romania, and Czechoslovakia, the communist member nations of the Warsaw Pact. The 14 states that split off are still known in Russia as “Near Abroad” states to the Russians since the 1990’s[2], and the government of Russia asserts that these states are still within their sphere of influence.[3]
Recent Events
Russia has regained much of its former power under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. In a speech at the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy in February of 2007, Vladimir Putin openly criticized the United States’ monopolistic domination of the global scene stating that the US showed an “almost uncontained hyper use of force in international relations”. He said the result of it is that “no one feels safe! Because no one can feel that international law is like a stone wall that will protect them. Of course such a policy stimulates an arms race.”[4] Many of Putin’s actions have showed this philosophy: such as the vehement support of Iran’s ‘peaceful’ nuclear program, or his opposition to the invasion of Iraq without the proper authorization of a UN Security Council Resolution.
As an international visionary Vladimir Putin wants a “fair and democratic world order that would ensure security and prosperity not only for a select few, but for all.” He has also proposed that there be international centers for where civilian grade uranium could be refined, and Putin is strongly opposed to the deployment of nuclear weapons in outer space.[5]
There is a darker side to Russia’s international involvement though. In 2004 Vladimir Putin supported the Ukrainian ‘pro-Kremlin’ candidate for Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych, even going as far as congratulating him on his victory before the ballots were fully counted (Yanukovych did not win). This sparked a massive anti-Russia movement in Ukraine known as the Orange Revolution; many Ukrainians were angered by Putin’s lack of respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty (Putin had visited the Ukraine twice, and many people saw his actions as evidence that Putin and the rest of Russia still saw the Ukraine as Russia’s property).
In 2007, when the Estonian government decided to relocate the statue of a Soviet soldier, a series of cyber attacks were launched against Estonian Internet sites. These attacks were the largest of their kind, and many experts speculate that because of the immense scale and organization, the involved parties must have has the assistance of Russian government and telecommunications experts.[6]
The Russian Government has also been supporting many separatist elements in surrounding nations, mainly in Georgia and Moldova (Russia currently has troops on the ground in breakaway regions of both nations).[7] Many of these moves go against the statements that Vladimir Putin has made on the subjects of freedom and democracy. Russia has also used its supply of natural gas to coerce many nations into not take anti-Russian stances. To make matters worse Russia has even proposed the creation of a natural gas cartel with Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, and Libya in the style of OPEC.[8] A cartel in this sector could cause many problems for the international energy market.
In March of 2007, the US announced that it was planning on constructing a radar system in the Czech Republic, and a missile base in Poland in order to protect the US and its allies against any threats. This system was intended to protect against Iranian and North Korean attacks, but the Russian Government saw the construction of this system as a threat, so in response, the Russians began testing new ballistic missiles that they claimed were impervious to current defensive technologies. Also in response to the construction of these sites, the Russian government also stated that it would aim their missile bases at the new sites[9]; this escalation of tensions has lead many to fear that these moves are pushing the US and Russia back to the old days of the Cold War.
Russia is the worlds largest country by land area, and it is the worlds 9th most populated country. Russia is strategically close to many important regions of the world and it also possesses a large amount of economic leverage with its large supply of natural resources. Russia’s egocentric and anti-US foreign policy has created a few tough situations already, but for the coming months extempers need to keep an eye on Russia, especially at the ‘balance of power’ between the president and the prime minister. Russia’s continued growth as an international power both politically and economically may led the government to be less apprehensive about producing opposition to the US and its allies on future issues (and its posturing in regards to the Poland/Czech Republic US missile and radar bases). Russia also has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which makes it a necessary obstacle for the US to overcome on any major actions (bypassing the UN may not be the best idea). Russia also holds the key for the advancement of prosperity in its former republics, and these nations need to continue catching up technologically and economically to the rest of the world in order to prevent more conflicts in the region. Russia’s intentions may not always be clear, but the world needs to keep a close eye on all that happens in the coming months in order to prevent an escalation of tensions with the re-rising power.
[1]:Speech By Vladimir Putin: http://president.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2007/02/10/0138_type82912type82914type82917type84779_118123.shtml
[2] Vladimir Socor, “Kremlin Refining Policy in ‘Post-Soviet Space’,” Eurasia Daily Monitor (February 8, 2005) at http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2369222.
[3] Robert Kagan (2008-02-06). “New Europe, Old Russia”. The Washington Post. Retrieved on 2008-08-15.
[4] 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy. Putin’s speech in English, February 10, 2007.
[5] See 4
[6] The Economist May 24, 2007: Cyberwarfare is becoming scarier
[7] “An Enduring Peace Built on Freedom // Revitalizing the Transatlantic Partnership”. Council on Foreign Relations (November/December 2007, Vol 86, Number 6). Retrieved on 2007-12-13.
[8] Sunday, August 24, 2008, The Moscow Times
[9] Gottemoeller, Rose. Interview with Robert Siegel. Talk of the Nation. NPR. 5 June 2007.