New Jersey governor's race candidates, from left, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, independent Chris Daggett, and Republican Christopher Christie. / New Jersey Star-Ledger Photo Composite (nj.com)
by Logan Scisco
Although most of the country’s political attention is focused on potential Republican challengers to President Obama in 2012 or how the economy will impact the Democratic Party’s chances in midterm elections next November, there are two races extempers need to focus on next week: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Elections in “off years” often are the red haired step child of political campaigns, never quite attracting the attention they deserve. This year marks a stark contrast as the frustrations of the first year of the Obama administration and the national economic climate, not to mention the poor fortunes of the Republican Party as of late, make these two races a critical barometer for 2010.
When he assumed the chairmanship of the Republican Party in 2009, former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele said that he was focused on winning the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races. At the time, sweeping both races looked to be an impossible task because of Democratic gains in Virginia, which now has two Democratic senators and has an outgoing Democratic governor, and because New Jersey has typically been reliably Democrat for in-state politics over the last decade. However, with healthcare reform bogged down in Congress and President Obama’s standing looking increasingly vulnerable, there is a real possibility of a GOP sweep next week in these two races. Virginia’s outcome looks certain with Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds trailing former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell by double digits in some of the latest polls. New Jersey’s race, though, has seen incumbent Democratic Governor and former U.S. Senator Jon Corzine close the gap with his Republican challenger Chris Christie over the last several weeks to the point that the race is now too close to call.
With the Virginia election reaching a near certain outcome, this brief will zero in on the New Jersey gubernatorial race and discuss the major issues in the race, the candidates involved and their platforms, the major issues in the race, and finally what a Democratic or Republican victory may mean for 2010 and beyond.
Major Issues
In many ways the New Jersey race is a referendum on the nation’s economic performance. The economic recession has hurt New Jersey compared to surrounding states like New York and Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia Inquirer on October 25th reported that the state unemployment rate is 9.8%, which is in keeping with the national average. Rutgers University economist Joseph Seneca has done an economic study of the state’s unemployment figures and has announced that the recession has cost the state over 161,000 private sector jobs. Pennsylvania and New York have lower unemployment rates than New Jersey and have seen fewer job layoffs, which opposition groups who are campaigning against Corzine blame on New Jersey’s high property taxes, unfriendly corporate tax rates, and poor fiscal situation. The state’s poor economic situation was elaborated upon by Forbes Magazine earlier this year, when it ranked New Jersey 45th in its “Best States for Business” report. As Philly.com noted last week, this was in comparison to the state ranking 16th in the same report in 2006 when Corzine took over.
Although Corzine campaigned in 2006 on his business expertise he has had to make some very unfavorable decisions to balance New Jersey’s finances. Last year, Corzine was forced to layoff public sector employees and angered the employees who did remain by demanding that contracts be reopened so that automatic pay increases could be removed. According to New Jersey Newsroom, while Corzine was able to successfully close this $8.25 billion budget gap, the state still faces a projected shortfall of another $8-10 billion next year and its total debt is nearly $45 billion. Corzine tried to cut the state’s total debt in his first year in office by floating a plan to sell New Jersey’s toll roads to private businesses and lease them back. The idea was that this would provide the state with much needed revenue to pay $30 billion in debt off. Yet, as The Washington Post on October 26th noted, this “asset monetization” scheme only served to kill Corzine’s high approval ratings and holding twenty-one town hall meetings did not do enough to get the plan passed.
This poor economic performance has the potential to turn the New Jersey governor’s mansion red. Christie has made a habit of showing television advertisements that attack Corzine for raising taxes on citizens by $900 billion and squeezing corporations with $270 million in tax increases. Corzine’s decision raise New Jersey’s sales tax to 7% during his term has not helped his cause either. Christie’s argument is that raising taxes in a time of recession, as opposed to cutting government spending, is a recipe for disaster and is causing wealthier citizens and corporations to flee New Jersey and reducing the state’s weakening tax base. The economic situation in the state has also emboldened independent candidate Chris Daggett, New Jersey’s former Environmental Protection administrator. His libertarian social views and economic ideas (which will be discussed later) are giving him momentum in the polls and he has used the series of debates to attack Corzine’s economic track record. For Corzine, he wants to avoid the situation of former Democratic Governor James J. Florio. Florio faced an economic recession in 1993 and lost a tight election to Republican challenger Christine Todd Whitman (the vote was 49% to 48%), who was the last Republican to win a gubernatorial election in the state.
Another major issue in the campaign is if Republicans can be trusted to run the state. Although Christie is a moderate Republican who supports the state’s civil union legislation for homosexual couples (although he opposes gay marriage legislation) and favors strict gun control laws, Corzine has tried to paint him as a figure of the extreme right. Corzine has done his best to link Christie to the Bush administration, a boogeyman in the Democratic playbook that does not seem to want to go away. The New York Times on October 23rd reported that Corzine has also argued that Christie would appoint social conservatives to the state’s Supreme Court, which could negatively impact abortion rights.
For his part, Christie has tried to paint Corzine as a corrupt politician, who uses his personal wealth to buy votes (Christie is using public matching funds for his campaign while Corzine is not). The New York Times previously cited also said that Christie is trying to link Corzine to Joseph Ferriero, a former Democratic chairman in Bergen County who was recently convicted on corruption charges. Christie alleges that Corzine gave money to Ferriero’s organizations and is a poor judge of character.
Candidates and Their Ideas
John Corzine (D)—Incumbent Governor
Looking at all three candidates websites, you can see that there are some significant differences on economic issues. It also projects the image that Corzine is on the defensive while Christie and Daggett are controlling the offensive. Corzine’s campaign website speaks in generalities about what he plans to do economically if he is elected to a second term. For example, his website speaks of looking into “progressive ways” of generating revenue which may mean higher personal income taxes on the wealthy or other targeted measures including excise taxes on soda or junk food. This may not be the correct interpretation, but “progressive ways” of generating revenue does not help define his platform.
Corzine is trying to portray himself as part of the solution instead of the problem. Corzine points to his willingness to cut public sector jobs last year and says that his decisions to reign in state spending on cars, state offices, and pensions is a sign of strength. Corzine is hoping that voters will be more willing to trust an experienced hand in a time of economic distress rather than cast him off and choose a new face. Additionally, Corzine argues that the economic recession is not his fault and he should not be blamed for it. However, this argument tends to be very weak with voters who are jobless and are looking for relief.
Unlike the other candidates, Corzine has positioned himself as a social issues candidate. He supports the idea of providing universal healthcare to all of New Jersey’s citizens regardless of what course of action the federal government decides to take on the issue. The Washington Post summed up Corzine’s election strategy on October 26th when it argued that he is hoping for a large turnout from New Jersey’s urban areas, who will reward him for increasing education and child health spending.
Chris Christie (R)
The centerpiece of Christie’s platform is to adopt a more business-friendly climate in New Jersey that might stem the fiscal bleeding the state is suffering from. He has pledged not to raise taxes while he is governor and has floated a plan to reduce property and corporate taxes. He is also advocating for a tougher line to be taken on the state budget and his website speaks of using of a line-item veto on spending bills from the state legislature, placing a four year sunset provision in all new state programs (to ensure they do not continue forever), and eliminating two out of three political patronage jobs in state government. However, Christie’s vision will likely be reined in by a hostile state legislature if he proves successful and/or the dire fiscal realities the state is facing that may preclude a massive tax relief package.
Christie’s economic vision also centers on revitalizing the state’s education centers and job training programs. Christie wants to expand New Jersey’s Education Opportunity Fund that provides educational assistance to minority youth in the state. His idea is that with an expansion of this program, New Jersey can keep more of its young minority students in-state when they are ready for college. Christie has also floated a plan on his website that would provide grants and funding to colleges in the state who want to provide alternative energy research programs and job training. This mirrors other “go green” initiatives in states hoping to receive federal aid and/or be trendsetters in new technology that could attract new businesses.
Chris Daggett (I)
Daggett is an interesting phenomenon in this race and his performance could foreshadow the rise of aggressive campaigns by independent candidates in 2010. Daggett’s public service career was centered on environmental protection and he has received the endorsement of the Sierra Club in this race. He has also been endorsed by the New Jersey Star-Ledger which has the widest circulation of any state newspaper. One of Daggett’s ideas is an open space preservation policy that would do a better job of preserving green space in the state.
Like Christie, Daggett presents an economic platform, but his is much more detailed and his website offers plans to fix New Jersey on an economic, environmental, and social level. His economic plan calls for a complete overhaul of the state’s tax structure and a 25% property tax cut, which would end up benefitting senior citizens more than other groups. To compensate for this wide tax cut, he would extend the state’s 7% sales tax to a wider variety of goods and services. One of Daggett’s most innovative ideas is to try to control spending by local governments, a problem endemic in New Jersey. Daggett calls for local budgets to be given a cap based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and if they go over this all of the residents of their community would forfeit their property tax cut. This punitive measure is meant to ensure that fiscal matters in the state proceed in an appropriate and responsible matter and is also meant to help people make more responsible economic decisions about their cities needs.
On social issues, Daggett could be called a libertarian as he endorses gay marriage and gun rights while advocating for an expansion of charter schools to improve New Jersey’s academic performance. His mixture of economic restructuring and social moderation is winning over Jersey voters, with a recent poll giving him 20% of the vote. As the Atlantic City Press on October 23rd revealed, this is cause for optimism in Daggett’s camp as it has allowed him to raise more money, put more advertisements on the air, and it mirrors where professional wrestler-turned politician Jesse Ventura’s ratings stood near the end of the Minnesota governor’s race in 1998, when he pulled off arguably one of the biggest upsets in recent political history. Republicans are quite angry about Daggett’s success, arguing that he is pulling away votes for Christie, which may have some validity since in recent weeks Christie’s ratings have fallen while Daggett’s have risen. However, Daggett is also likely to pull away some support from Corzine, especially among loyal Democrats who cannot bring themselves to vote for Corzine but do not want to vote for Christie either.
Impact
A Republican victory in New Jersey would likely accompany a victory in Virginia next week. This would send shockwaves through the Democratic Party. Although President Obama’s team has already begun to distance itself from Deeds in Virginia, with some controversial statements coming from White House aides last week that Deeds is losing because he did not embrace the President enough, a loss in both states would reflect poorly upon the administration’s first year in office. While the White House could write off Virginia as a relatively conservative state that was bound to go red again down the road, a loss in a Democratic stronghold like New Jersey could expose fissures in the Democratic Party. Blue Dog Democrats could interpret a Christie victory as a repudiation of the Obama administration’s policies and see Corzine as a victim of the White House’s domestic and foreign policies. As a result, they might solidify their resistance to some of Obama’s planned initiatives involving cap and trade legislation, healthcare reform, and immigration reform. Obama would also not be able to easily avoid being tied to a Corzine defeat because he will have visited the state several times before election day to rally support for the incumbent governor.
A Republican victory in New Jersey would also do a lot to rejuvenate the Republican Party. Christie’s victory may show that the party is starting to break out of its southern mold and may create more tolerance in the party. A Christie victory would also shore up the position of GOP Chairman Steele and give him some capital to advance his ideas through the party. A victory may also attract better candidates in Congressional races and provide more funding than the GOP has had in the last two major election cycles (2006 and 2008). A victory would also fire up the Republican base and allow Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, and Sean Hannity to espouse their views that America had just repudiated Obama’s “socialist” agenda. In other words, political victory solves a lot of internal and external problems and that is what the GOP is seeking in this race.
However, a Democratic victory would likely negate some of the GOP’s momentum from regaining Virginia. Make no mistake about it, Democrats will be hurt in 2009 if Virginia is lost but a Corzine victory, especially a come from behind victory, would prevent 2009 from being seen as a disaster for Democrats. A Corzine win may see his tactics replicated in 2010 races, especially in Nevada where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be facing an uphill battle for re-election. This strategy would involve a heavy dose of negative campaigning, using President Obama for rallies, and attempting to tie GOP candidates to President Bush. The last part might end up being the wrong strategy to adopt since Bush has kept a low profile since leaving office (leaving Dick Cheney to carry the anti-terrorism policies the administration pursued), but if it works for Corzine expect it to pop up in 2010.
Extempers should also realize that the GOP will claim victory even if Corzine wins because they will argue that if the race is close and Corzine only wins with less than 45% of the vote they have made inroads with New Jersey voters. New Jersey’s voter registration favors Democrats by a 4:3 margin and last voted for a Republican president in 1988. It’s a state that the GOP should not be very competitive in to begin with, especially when faced with Corzine’s massive fundraising advantage. Also, since there is no runoff in case a candidate fails to get 50% or more of the popular vote, the GOP will argue that Corzine will retain his job by having 50-60% of Jersey voters disapproving of his job performance. This was an argument that GOP insiders are still using to thrash Al Franken who failed to get 50% or more of the popular vote in his Senate race that dragged on former with Norm Coleman in Minnesota. This was caused by the presence of a strong third party candidate, which is the same situation New Jersey finds itself in with this race.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that Daggett should be taken seriously. Although New Jersey is not as flexible with voter registration as Minnesota, which enabled Jesse Ventura to win in 1998, there are a sizeable number of Jersey voters who are tired of the two party system. As was said previously in this brief, Democrats are not very big on the Corzine candidacy and they might vote for Daggett as opposed to voting for Christie. The major obstacle for third party candidates is sustaining support among voters, as some voters may tell pollsters they will vote third party but change their mind on election day. The myth of “throwing your vote away” is powerful and some Democrats may be willing to keep Corzine rather than have the Democrats lose the governor’s mansion and some Republicans may be willing to stick with Christie to regain control of the state for the first time in a nearly a decade instead of throwing their lot in with Daggett. Nevertheless, it has to said that if Daggett pulls out a miracle in this race it would prompt a serious national discussion about the two party system and both sides of the aisle would be served the political equivalent of a wake up call by Jersey voters.
On a final note, this is the last topic brief for SpeechGeek HotTopics. I’ve been happy to provide you with insight of global and domestic events for the last year and a half and hope that you have found the analysis here interesting, insightful, and useful. Topic briefs will still appear, albeit bi-weekly, at Extemp Central. I hope you can join us there for continued analysis of the domestic and international scene and to enhance your extemp abilities.