Once the midterm elections end, the next big political campaign will be the 2012 presidential election. While President Obama will likely be nominated by the Democrats for a second term, the Republican opposition has no clear frontrunner. Based on the midterm election cycle, the GOP presidential primary might be one of the most thrilling and competitive in years and might see a bloody civil war between social and fiscal conservatives. Such a battle has the potential to either strengthen the party and the candidates involved or devastate the GOP’s 2012 chances.
This brief list will discuss some of the top contenders for the 2012 nomination, with some facts that extempers should consider when weighing in on 2012 topics. Polling agencies like Gallup, the Pew Research Center, and Rasmussen provide regular polls on the 2012 field and extempers would be wise to cut them. One useful Gallup poll that was released today can be found here. I would highly recommend that extempers cut it and place it in their files.
Candidate #1: Mitt Romney
Romney is the former governor of Massachusetts and winning that position was no easy task considering the tendency of Massachusetts to elect Democrats nationally. While governor, Romney pushed through a controversial universal healthcare reform package that was a model for President Obama’s plan. Unfortunately for Romney, Massachusetts package failed to reduce the cost of healthcare and created a shortage of insurance policies in the state. Considering the hostility of the Republican base and independent voters to the healthcare law passed by Congress, this might be Romney’s Achilles heel in the primary. In 2008, Romney poured tons of money into Iowa and New Hampshire, the states that begin the GOP’s nomination fight. However, he lost Iowa to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and lost New Hampshire to Arizona Senator John McCain. Since the Republican Party tends to reward candidates when it is their “turn” to run (see Ronald Reagan in ’76, Bob Dole in ’96), Romney might get over the hump this time. He is a favorite of the fiscal conservatives in the GOP, but his Mormon faith may not go over well with some religious conservatives.
Candidate #2: Sarah Palin
The former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice-presidential nominee is arguably the most polarizing political figure in America. Palin has used the 2010 midterm cycle to campaign for candidates that are supported by the Tea Party and her influence was seen as crucial in Joe Miller’s defeat of Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary there. In terms of charisma, no politican can match Palin in the GOP field. If she wins the nomination, she would become the first female presidential candidate nominated by a major party. However, there are significant questions about whether she is electable in a general election, something that her primary rivals are likely to focus on. Another thing that extempers need to consider with Palin is that she would make more money on television and in a speaking role than she ever would as president, so she may choose to remain on the political sidelines. Palin would be a favorite among social and religious conservatives in the GOP and would carry significant Tea Party support. However, she may alienate more moderate Republicans and that sets up a bloody and long GOP primary battle. If Palin runs, she is almost a lock to win Iowa and South Carolina, which is why Romney and other GOP contenders are waiting to see if she enters the race before they commit to those states.
Candidate #3: Mike Huckabee
Huckabee was the runner-up to John McCain in the 2008 presidential race. As the former governor of Arkansas, Huckabee championed an obesity campaign and established a health insurance program for children. Huckabee became a national force when he upset Romney in the 2008 Iowa primary, but he was unable to use that victory to win in later states like South Carolina and Florida. Huckabee is a former pastor and he has a weekend television show called “Huckabee” on Fox News. Huckabee consistently polls in the top tier when voters are asked which candidate they would support for the GOP’s presidential nomination in 2012. He is a favorite among social conservatives in the party, but if Palin runs he may not get their support. Huckabee’s down to earth style goes over well with voters and his up beat messages may resonate with a voting public that will be disillusioned in 2012 by Washington politics and the economy (if it fails to improve).
Candidate #4: Newt Gingrich
Rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 1996, Gingrich has gradually rebuilt his political career after his resignation from the House in November 1998. Gingrich was one of the architects of the Contract with America, which allowed the GOP to win control of Congress in the 1994 midterm elections. As Speaker of the House during the Clinton administration, he was a polarizing figure in American politics (think of Nancy Pelosi’s image today). Gingrich’s attempt to impeach Bill Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky scandal backfired in the 1998 midterms, when the Democrats gained House seats and Gingrich was forced to step down by Republican forces. Like Palin and Huckabee, Gingrich is a commentator for Fox News and he has produced several historical documentaries since leaving Congress. Gingrich refused to run in 2008, but has dropped hints that he is seriously considering a bid in 2012. If he ran, Gingrich would attempt to position himself as a fiscal conservative. A major liability for his campaign would be his past image of combativeness while in government and the fact that he has been married three times and cheated on his first two wives. His first wife alleges that he visited her in the hospital when she was recovering from cancer to discuss divorce details. Experienced extempers can liken Gingrich’s personal baggage with what Rudy Giuliani had to go through in the 2008 campaign and everyone knows how poorly Giuliani fared in the primaries.
Candidate #5: Tim Pawlenty
Pawlenty is the outgoing governor of Minnesota and he has been putting out feelers in Iowa and New Hampshire for a presidential bid. Pawlenty was rumored to be a possible vice-presidential nominee in 2008. Pawlenty will have to overcome a name deficit early in the race, as many Americans do not know who he is or what he stands for. This puts Pawlenty in the dangerous position of being defined early in the race if he starts off poorly. Pawlenty is more moderate than other contenders in the field, but his record in Minnesota is mixed. The state budget deficit is projected to run into the billions and tuition for students at Minnesota universities has skyrocketed. Pawlenty is a champion of green energy, but this has not gone over well with members of his own party. Furthermore, it is not certain that Pawlenty would win Minnesota if he ran for president. Although he has favorable ratings, a sizeable number of Minnesotans said they were not thrilled with him running for president when asked in 2008. Pawlenty also barely won re-election in 2006, winning by less than a percentage point. Minnesota is one of the few governor’s races that the Democrats are expected to win this November.
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