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The International Extemp final round has concluded. Here is Extemp Central’s analysis of this year’s final round. Awards will take place at 6:00 p.m. CST tonight. They will be streamed at this link.
Note: Notable judges for the final round include MBA tournament director Adam Johnson; Maria Casa, the director of national programming and outreach administration for the Council on Foreign Relations; and Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.
Note #2: This year’s national tournament saw 236 students compete in International Extemp.
Speaker 1 (141-Isabella Paretti)
Question: Is the election of Narendra Modi a blessing or burden for China’s interests in Asia?
Answer: Burden because India will soon gain in strength
I. India’s New Power with U.S.
CFR-Modi and Obama have been engaged in talks since September 2013 when he visited Washington to discuss China
Strategic and International Studies-Modi’s party supports enhancing ties with the United States
Al Jazeera 3/22-Implication will halt China in Asia
II. Fortified Economic Strength
ECO 9/23-Under Manmohan Singh, India experienced 5% GDP growth and a terrible job market + stagnant resource development sector
NYT 5/7-India will be able to focus on reversing past difficulties, but also in building its economy
III. Benefits of Extremism
Brookings-Although Modi has utilized extremism, he will use it to generate quick power and change
ECO-Extremism will help Modi create more change
PEW-Comparison of Modi and Gandhi
Time: 7:39
Summary: The introduction does a good job giving background on Modi, but it could shed more light on the Sino-Indian relationship. It is good that the speaker uses a thesis on their answer. The transition to the first point is too long and the speaker moves before beginning to speak in transition. Nice line about how the Council on Foreign Relations is the best source. More attention needed to be paid to China in the first point. The speaker needs to talk as they walk in transition because there is an awkward silence as they walk between their points. The speaker has a good rate of delivery, which is very easy to listen to and follow. China is becoming an afterthought of this speech as we have had less than a minute of discussion about them. This is problematic when answering the question, which puts more of a focus on China than Modi. Overall, I feel that the speaker did not fully answer the question because we need more information on China’s relationship with India. Speaker does a good job sticking to their analysis and does not buckle to the pressure of the sixth speaker’s questions. Very good questions to the second speaker about Jonathan’s support in the international community and the scope of Boko Haram’s activities.
Speaker 2 (144-Miles Saffran)
Question: Will Boko Haram cause the fall of the Nigerian government?
Answer: Absolutely
I. Declaring Sovereignty over Northern Areas
International Strategic Studies-Deep divide in Nigeria’s government along geographic religious lines. The South has abused the North for quite some time in rolling back wheat subsidies and weakening the North’s representation
FP in Focus April-Rather than running away, a Northern area encouraged Boko Haram to exercise power
NYT 6/3-Boko Haram is reminiscent of Islamic militants in Northern Mali
II. Influx of Terrorist Networks
FP 3/8-Boko Haram has been on a meet and greet with other terrorist groups and it found partners in al-Qaeda and throughout Africa
Brookings 5/4-al-Qaeda seeks to attack government infrastructure and this has bolstered Boko Haram
WSJ 6/2-Nigerian pacifist tribe has been radicalized by Boko Haram
III. Mobilizing Sentiment Against Goodluck Jonathan’s Government
The Daily Star 5/6-Goodluck Jonathan’s government has had oil corruption that saw $60m misplaced and no arrests were made
FP 3/9-Jonathan must convince the people that he is a legitimate government authority
POL 5/13-The fact that the government was slow to respond to schoolgirls being kidnapped + human rights abuses = U.S. is hesitant to give lots of military assistance
London School of Economics-Popular protests growing against government abuses
Time: 7:07
Summary: Interesting AGD linking the teachings of the Prince to Goodluck Jonathan. Very nice rhetoric and background in the introduction on Boko Haram and its actions in Nigeria. Each point does a great job providing an example that supplements the analysis provided by sources that come before it. One of the problems with the tag of the third point is that the speaker has discussed Boko Haram’s mobilizing of sentiment against Jonathan in the other two points. Having a better tag for point three would have helped that situation. A very convincing speech about how the Nigerian government is having its sovereignty challenged and the speaker does a good job deflecting some difficult questions by the first speaker. Speaker asks good questions in CX, especially about the long-term prospect of renewable energy. Attacking the third point may have been the better strategic choice because calls for new energy rarely survive after a temporary oil shock.
Speaker 3 (114-Rohan Dhoopar)
Question: What impact will violence in Iraq have on global oil markets in the short-term?
Answer: Three-fold
I. Dimmer Prospects for Emerging Markets
Brookings 6/6-Emerging markets (e.g. India) import more than 3m barrels of oil a day
WSJ 6/19-ISIS threatening Iraq’s oil sector
Source-Emerging markets can’t pay for other important programs like their economies, healthcare systems, etc. when oil prices spike
Times of India 6/8-Oil bill could rise from $20b to $200b due to Iraqi crisis
II. Impact on Traditional Oil Exporters
CIA Factbook-Saudi Arabia & RUS are the world’s biggest oil exporters
NYT 6/20-Iraqi oil refinery in Iraqi city will see ISIS contest government forces and disabling the refinery’s operations
NYT 6/19-Saudi Arabia has told U.S. and UK not to intervene in Iraq because it could benefit as a result of the crisis
WSJ 6/5-Due to crisis, and as countries become more dependent on oil, sanctions on Russia become less effective because RUS can sell to other customers
III. Call for Renewed Focus on Renewable Energies
Bloomberg-Each oil shock = calls for renewable energy
Guardian 6/19-Renewables are 22% of the world’s electricty (16% hydro and 4.4% from solar & wind)
ECO 5/8-If prices are going to rise for the West, more calls for alternative energy will take place
Time: 7:14
Summary: Funny AGD about people wanting to leave Iraq, but it took forty seconds and has not hit on the Iraqi oil market. Having some background in the introduction about the scale and importance of Iraq’s oil sector to the Iraqi government and/or the world. I would have preferred the speaker to focus on one impact and three reasons why that impact will take place rather than get a speech with three different impacts. Good example of how high oil prices could hurt India in the first point. The speech could benefit by having a little more discussion of how much of Iraq’s oil is being taken out of the international market. Not all Iraqi refineries are under siege from the ISIS and many are in Shi’ite areas of the Iraqi South so international anxieties about oil prices might subside shortly. This would add more context to how much of an impact Iraqi oil spikes could have. That said, the speaker has three good points and presents a very sensible analysis of the question given. They also have a very controlled, yet effective delivery style as there is very little wasted time within the points. Speaker does a very good job defending their speech in CX. Great question to start CX by pointing to existing violence in Eastern Ukraine.
Speaker 4 (136-Gabe Slater)
Question: What role is Petro Poroshenko playing in shaping the future of Ukraine?
Answer: Working to make it a unified, independent country
I. Engaging with Separatists in E-Ukraine
ECO-RUS meddling and legitimate problems have created violence in E-Ukraine and there are 30 different separatist groups that are active
NYT 5/26-Poroshenko wants to step up anti-terror efforts
BBC 6/20-Poroshenko has proposed 16 point peace with the separatists
II. Placing Ukraine in Europe’s Sphere of Influence
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2/14-Last December, Victor Yanukovych pulled out of an agreement with the EU and accepted $15b loan from Russia and this put Ukraine into RUS’s sphere of influence
Source-Poroshenko wants to restart talks with the EU
III. Standing Firm to RUS on Gas
FT 6/19-Gazprom has shut down shipping of natural gas into Ukraine. When Yanukoyvch was in power, the price was lower.
Time: 7:22
Summary: Fun comparisons between Putin and Obama, but they take up 50 seconds of the speech and we do not even hear about Petro Poroshenko until the 1:00 mark. This is valuable time that is wasted out of the gate. Still, the speaker does clarify Poroshenko’s election and who he is. Good job about Russian preparations for the Winter Olympics. The first point has a good example about Donesk, but including some specifics of his 16 point peace proposal would have helped evaluate whether his actions will shape Ukraine in a positive manner. This speech ends up as quite top heavy, with the speaker not transitioning to their third point until 5:25. More details on Poroshenko’s specific actions toward the EU and RUS on gas would have helped as we get rather broad statements in those areas. To the speaker’s credit, though, they make sure to link back to Poroshenko in each point. The third point ended up too short due to time considerations. The speaker’s speech was hindered a bit by the questioning of speaker three, who utilized very recent events and sources to argue that violence in Eastern Ukraine is not going away. Speaker has a good attack on OPEC and whether allowing violence to continue in Iraq is really beneficial for the region.
Speaker 5 (202-Dylan Adelman)
Question: How should OPEC members respond to the escalation of violence in Iraq?
Answer: Do nothing because any intervention would exacerbate the conflict
I. Sectarianism
The Dispensible Nation-Sunnis have been removed from government, such as Maliki’s former Sunni VP
Source-Removal of Sunni leaders have driven Sunnis toward extremists
CSM 6/19-Intervention by OPEC could make them Shi’ite air force and become Maliki’s backers
II. Federalism
Center for Strategic and International Studies-OPEC benefits from a single Iraqi state (e.g. Iran benefits from a Shia-dominated state)
Al Arabiya-Members of different terrorists group have pushed for a divided country
III. Terrorism
Source-Conflict between groups due to OPEC countries fighting second generation warfare against an enemy that can blend in with civilians (e.g. Syria)
Time: 8:29
Summary: I hate when we end up with two questions on the same issue in a round, but that is not the fault of the speaker. As a fan of history, I appreciated the introduction about the European takeover of the Middle East. However, it takes us nearly a minute to get to the Iraqi crisis. The speaker takes way too long to get their question, as it takes 2:21 to get there (and 2:56 overall). The introduction was very good and made good points, especially with regards to how extempers need to realize that the people they talk about in rounds are real and not an abstract concept, it is just far too long. That long intro causes there to be some time allocation problems in the speech as the second and third points end up too short. The speech goes over the time limit, but that does not necessarily disqualify this speaker from doing well as Aaron Mattis gave an 8:30+ speech in 2007 and still won the IX final round. Aside from the time issues, it would have been interesting to hear at least something economic about OPEC since the group does not necessarily function the same as the Arab League. This weighs a lot on my evaluation of this speech. I know that the speaker is valuing real people over abstract economics, but an OPEC question of this nature may not be the best place to make that argument. Speaker makes a good challenge by noting the large expense of the World Cup versus previous World Cups and follows it up by tackling the large stadiums that may not be used in the future.
Speaker 6 (175-Lily Nellans)
Question: Has hosting the World Cup exacerbated the problems facing Brazil’s poorest citizens?
Answer: No because it will solve their problems
I. Brought in $$$
ECO 2/8-Money for anti-poverty programs did not leave enough to help the rest of the population and Brazil’s deficit has ballooned = education, social payments, etc. cuts
Asia Times 4/12-Not only do the World Cup bring in tourist money, but it brings in big advertisers and is like hosting the Super Bowl every day for a month so = $35m for the Brazil’s government
Source-Brazil will increase social welfare payments by 10% due to World Cup revenue
II. Created Jobs
McKinsey Consulting 2014-Jobless is #1 driver of poverty like that found in Brazil
Source-The poor can get short-term jobs during the World Cup
Source-Brazil exports increase by 30%
III. Infrastructure Has Been Built
Regional Journal-Slums are bigger than Overland Park and people do not have access to electricity and sanitation
Chatnam House-Brazil is building sanitation and electricity facilities, so the slums are getting better
Time: 7:15
Summary: Speaker asks very direct questions that seek to challenge the first speaker’s analysis on India’s foreign policy priorities and its ties to other nations. Topical AGD links quickly to the focus of the question, which allows the speaker to give sufficient background on Brazil’s poor before going to the question. However, the intro does end up too lengthy at 2:00. An analytical flaw of the first point is whether the World Cup may cause lost workdays and less economic activity, thereby costing the Brazilian economy some of the benefits of hosting the tournament. Funny joke about the lack of adequate Russian bathrooms during the 2014 Winter Olympics to transition into the third point. Little discussion of Brazil’s controversial slum pacification campaign could open this speech to challenge during CX. Recognizing the existing protests that came before and during elements of the World Cup would have made the analysis of this speech stronger. Some of this comes out in CX, but I would have liked to have seen it placed within the body of the points. Speaker deflected some difficult CX questions from the fifth speaker.
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Another very, very good round. The wild card will be how the judges react to Adelman’s time issues.
Final Ranks on My Ballot (Which Doesn’t Count):
1-144 (Miles Saffran)
2-114 (Rohan Dhoopar)
3-175 (Lily Nellans)
4-136 (Gabe Slater)
5-202 (Dylan Adelman)
6-141 (Isabella Paretti)